An Early Look at 2008

With the constant media coverage already focused on the 2008 Presidential Election, it is impossible not to look ahead to November 4, 2008. While the presidential race will be sure to garner the majority of the national attention, 33 U.S. Senators and all members of the U.S. House of Representatives will face re-election.

U.S. Senate:
As a result of the 2006 elections, the U.S. Senate is comprised 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 2 Independents. In 2008, 21 Republican Senators and 12 Democratic Senators face re-election. At this time, Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) is the only member of the U.S. Senate that has announced he will not seek re-election.  Four members have yet to announce their re-election plans: Sens. Thad Cochran (R-MS), Larry Craig (R-ID), Chuck Hagel (R-NE), and John Warner (R-VA). Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) faces re-election and will run unless his bid for President is successful. 

Of the twenty-one seats held currently by Republicans, four are in states won by Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential Election: Oregon, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. On the other hand, six of the twelve Democrats facing re-election represent states carried by Pres. Bush: Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Early prognostications list eight Senators considered as vulnerable, although this will likely change in the next eighteen months depending on what national issues are most prominent. Sens. Norm Coleman (R-MN), John Sununu (R-NH), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Gordon Smith (R-OR) will face strong challenges from the left while Republicans will target Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Tim Johnson (D-SD), Max Baucus (D-MT), and Tom Harkin (D-IA) as the most attainable Democratic seats. 

One interesting dynamic to consider in the upcoming Senate elections are those Senators seeking re-election that serve currently as a chairman or ranking member of a Senate committee.   Below is a list of Chairs and Ranking Minority members who face re-election in 2008:

Chairs on the ballot:
• Agriculture: Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA)
• Armed Services: Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI)
• Finance: Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT)
• Foreign Relations: Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE)
• Homeland Security: Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI)
• Small Business: Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)

Ranking minority members on the ballot:
• Agriculture: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
• Appropriations: Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS)
• Commerce: Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK)
• Energy: Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM)
• Environment and Public Works: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
• Health, Education, Labor and Pensions: Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY)
• Homeland Security: Sen. Sue Collins (R-ME)
• Veterans' Affairs: Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID)

U.S. House:
In the House of Representatives, the 2006 elections gave Democrats the majority for the first time since 1994. Currently, Democrats have a thirty-one seat advantage in the lower chamber. Republicans have their work cut out for them if they hope to regain the majority.  

Four sitting House members have announced they will not seek re-election. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (IL-4) is retiring, Rep. Duncan Hunter (CA-52) is running for president, Rep. Bobby Jindal (LA-1) is running for governor and Rep. Mark Udall (CO-2) is running for the U.S. Senate.

Since members of the House face re-election every two years, an interesting statistic to examine is the election results from the previous cycle. In 2006, twenty-four Republicans and seventeen Democrats were elected with less than fifty-two percent of the vote.  Furthermore, nineteen of these forty-one victories were by first time members of Congress. In total, 2006 saw fifty-four candidates win election to the House for the first time. 

We have identified ten races which we believe are most likely to switch hands in 2008 and will be updating this list between now and Election Day. 

Arizona 1
In Arizona’s 1st District, Cong. Rick Renzi (R) is the subject of a recent scandal involving an FBI raid on his wife’s business. If he does not resign between now and Election Day, he will face a strong challenge from the Democrats. 

California 4
Another sitting Republican, Cong. John Doolittle (R), also is embroiled in scandal. He won in 2006 with 49 percent of the vote and will once again face his 2006 challenger, Charlie Brown, in 2008. California’s 4th District seat is up for grabs. 

California 11
In California’s 11th District, Republicans look to regain the seat lost when former Rep. Richard Pombo (R) was defeated by Jerry McNerney (D), in 2006.    This is a District that Bush won with 54 percent in 2004. Pombo recently announced that he would not attempt a comeback for his old seat.  Potential GOP candidates include State Assemblyman Guy Houston and former Assemblyman Dean Andal.

Florida 16
Rep. Tim Mahoney (D) was able to capitalize on the scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley (R) and win election in Florida’s 16th District in 2006. Voter registration tells us this is a seat Republicans should regain in the 2008 elections.

Indiana 9
Indiana’s 9th District is held currently by Baron Hill (D) who unseated Mike Sodrel (R) in 2006. Interestingly enough, Sodrel unseated Hill in 2004 confirming that this seat is constantly in flux. Bush carried this Congressional District by 19 points in 2004. 

Kansas 2
Kansas’ 2nd District is another Congressional District with a strong GOP voter registration advantage represented currently by a freshman Democrat member, Nancy Boyda. She defeated Jim Ryun (R) in 2006 and will most likely face a rematch, assuming Ryan is able to defeat Kansas State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins in the Republican primary.

New Mexico 1
Rep. Heather Wilson, who represents New Mexico’s 1st District, has been the subject of two Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) radio ads implicating her in the U.S. Attorneys scandal.  She will most likely be challenged by Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich. Wilson has never received more than 55 percent of the vote. This cycle’s race is shaping up to be just as close.  

Ohio 18
Rep. Zach Space (D), who won Ohio’s 18th District, held formerly by Rep. Bob Ney (R), may face a strong Republican challenger with ex-Guernsey County Court of Common Pleas Magistrate Jeanette Moll (R).  Moll announced recently her candidacy for this seat and hopes to run as an outsider who brings a fresh face to the election.

Pennsylvania 10
Freshman Rep. Chris Carney (D), who capitalized on scandals surrounding former Rep. Don Sherwood (R), is in a vulnerable seat for the Democrats. The Republican Party is aggressively recruiting U.S. Attorney Tom Marino to challenge Carney.  If Marino decides to run, he has a legitimate shot of ousting the freshman. 

Texas 22
Former House Majority Leader Tom Delay’s longtime seat, Texas’s 22nd District, will be up for grabs in 2008. Former and now again freshman Rep. Nick Lampson (D) announced recently that he will run for re-election.  However, Republicans should regain control of this seat.

The Party Take:
The Republican Party believes that it has a legitimate opportunity to reclaim the majority in the House. One advantage Republicans have is that many freshmen Democrats won election in historically Republican seats, thus in 2008, Republicans will be focused on reclaiming some of their old territory. The unpopular war in Iraq is a black eye on the Bush Administration and thus on Republicans in Congress. It will be interesting to see how Republicans shape their stance on Iraq between now and Election Day. 

Democrats are also extremely confident in their opportunities in 2008 for continued success. They will attempt to make the 2008 elections a referendum on the Bush Administration and the situation in Iraq, further disenfranchising moderate voters from the GOP. By doing this, they hope to find even more success in moderate seats across the country that are currently represented by Republicans. 

The most important thing either party can do during 2007 is raise money and recruit quality challengers to incumbents.  That being said, anything can happen in November 2008.